Top Threats to Higher Ed in 2019

Threat No. 8 — Limited Reputation

The first seven threats to higher education applied to the entire sector, especially private, residential institutions. Limited reputation is especially vexing for Susquehanna.

Following the announcement of my appointment as president of Susquehanna, well-wishers at the meetings of many of the organizations with whom I worked in the Midwest, would say something to the effect of, “Congratulations to Jonathan on being named president at—How do you say the name of your new university?”

An alumnus recently said to me, “Susquehanna is the biggest little university in the world. No matter where I go, if I have on fan wear, someone will know SU, and say ‘What a great school.’” 

Last week, that happened to me on a ship in the middle of the Mediterranean, but I also regularly encounter people in Harrisburg (45 miles from campus) who have no idea where we are much less have an opinion about us.

A few years ago, I was at a conference of college and university leaders. A presenter asked the assembly, “How many of you refer to your institution as a ‘hidden gem.’” All eight hundred attendees raised their hands.

Each of us believes we are under-recognized and over-meritorious. In our case it’s true.

• Susquehanna is among the top 10% of colleges and universities for financial return on investment (Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2019).
• Susquehanna is 1^st in Pennsylvania and 11^th in the U.S. for study abroad (Open Doors 2019, Institute for International Education).
• Susquehanna is among the top 40 national liberal-arts institutions for our contribution to the public good through promotion of social mobility, research, and service (Washington Monthly, 2018).
• Susquehanna is one of the nation’s most environmentally responsible colleges (Princeton Review Guide to 399 Green Colleges, 2018).
• Susquehanna is 20^th in the nation for the best residential summer programs for high school students (Value Colleges, 2018).
• Susquehanna was named the ninth most economically diverse student body in the U.S. (New York Times, 2014).
• Susquehanna is a member of the Annapolis Group, the leading 130 private liberal arts colleges in the nation.
• The Sigmund Weis School of Business is among the top 5% of business programs world-wide and one of only ten U.S. undergraduate-only programs to have earned AACSB accreditation.

These are just of few of the lights under our bushel.

My New Year’s resolution is to “Burn the Bushel.”

Two years ago, we started including a bragging page in Currents, the University’s biennial magazine. Some of the items above came from it.

We need to mobilize our alumni, families, and friends to boast about these highlights. We need to lift the reputation of the University to the level of its merit. Most importantly, we need to be sure that every student who would benefit from a Susquehanna education knows about us and makes an informed decision.

My charge to you is to share these bragging points, and many others, along with your own stories about what Susquehanna means to you. Do this until your friends are exhausted. Then do it some more. Comment on social media stories about SU; better yet, repost them; and best, post your own.

Happy New Year to you all!

LET’S BURN THE BUSHEL IN 2020.

A recent Gallup poll reports that the percentage of U.S. adults who believe college is very important has dropped from 70% in 2013 to 51% this fall. The same survey showed that those who believed it was “fairly important” or “not too important” rose from 13% to 36% in the same time period.

This September, The Wall Street Journal and THE (what the London Times Higher Education Supplement has become) hosted a gathering of university leaders to announce this year’s THE/WSJ rankings. The big unveiling of the top 10 revealed MIT, Stanford, Cal Tech, and seven of the Ivies. Imagine the surprise.

This same event included a presentation on how institutions can hire THE as a consultant to improve their standings in THE’s own rankings—really!

I believe media coverage of the declining public confidence in higher education is a main cause of the decline, but there appears to be little appetite among the press to push in the other direction.

During another panel the THE/WSJ event, Douglas Belkin, one of the principal higher-education writers for the WSJ, stated multiple times that young people are less and less inclined to take the risk of investing in a college education. During the same panel, Joe Barrett, U.S. Midwest and national education editor for the WSJ, stated that the earnings gap between college graduates and non-graduates is at an all-time high. There is a disconnect.

As Louis Menand recently wrote in The New Yorker, “Almost every study concludes that getting a college degree is worth it. What is known as the college wage premium—the difference in lifetime earnings between someone with only a high-school diploma and someone with a college degree—is now, by one calculation, a hundred and sixty-eight per cent. For people with an advanced degree, the wage premium is two hundred and thirteen per cent.”

The earnings advantages of obtaining a college degree didn’t used to be the prime driver for pursuing one. In the 1960s, ~80% of college students stated that the main reason they enrolled was to develop a personal philosophy and ~20% listed the prime reason as increased earning potential. By the 1990s, that ratio had inverted. The focus on earnings now seems even greater, but that may be because the relationship between a college degree and increased income has grown.

The fiscal return on investment is now much greater than 50 years ago, when far fewer good-paying jobs required a college degree.  

In the same article, Menand wrote, “In the nineteen-fifties and sixties, the college wage premium was small or nonexistent. Americans did not have to go to college to enjoy a middle-class standard of living. And the income of Americans who did get a degree, even the most well-remunerated ones, was not exorbitantly greater than the income of the average worker. By 1980, though, it was clear that the economy was changing. The middle class was getting hollowed out, its less advantaged members taking service jobs that reduced their income relative to the top earners’.”

Now even many “blue-collar” jobs require significant technical training.

Like fifty years ago, the greatest benefits of a college education are its potential to expand a student’s world view, to challenge students to appreciate competing value systems, to empower them to value and celebrate difference, and to cultivate generous civility. Higher education in its best form is dedicated to developing humble leaders, engaged citizens, and good neighbors.

The new Gallup data cited above may be an indication that, in the maelstrom of contemporary media, the average U.S. adult does not understand the objective earnings data and has lost an awareness that higher education is dedicated to fostering leadership, citizenship, and civility. A more chilling conclusion is that at this particularly troubling inflection point in our history, fewer respondents believe these qualities are important. Let us hope not.

Top Threats to Higher Ed in 2019

Threats No. 5— 2026 “Demographic Cliff” and No. 7—Geographic Population Redistribution

Following the Great Recession, birthrates in the U.S. dropped dramatically across the population. These are the children that will enter traditional college age in 2026. As Nathan Grawe reports, “Between 2025 and 2029, the number of college-going students will decline by 15%—that’s over 400,000 fewer students in a span of four years.”

There have been birthrate declines in the past, including following the Great Depression and the end of the baby boom. In both cases, birthrates picked up again, but that is not yet true this time. Also, following the baby boom, we saw an increase in the percentage of 18-year-olds enrolling in college, which as I wrote a few weeks ago, is also in decline.

These impending deficits are exacerbated by the recent drop in new international students, whom many college  leaders in the U.S. had hoped would fill the impending enrollment gap.

The U.S. population is in the midst of significant geographic redistribution. In the last four decades, the populations of New York and Illinois grew 11% and Pennsylvania grew 8%, while the national population grew 46%. During that same period, California grew 67%, Texas 102%, and Florida 119%.

The rank of the top-10 states by population in 1980, versus estimates for 2020 is:

The redistribution of urban populations has been more dynamic. New York City grew 22%, Los Angeles 37%, San Diego 66%, and Phoenix 117%. The population of Philadelphia fell by 7% and Chicago fell by 11%. Detroit plummeted by 45% moving from 6^th place to 26^th in 39 years.

The rank of the top-10 cities by population in 1980, versus estimates for 2019 is:

These changes will have a wildly varied impact across higher education. Some institutions will see influxes of new students migrating in their direction; others will need to make adjustments to respond to a declining traditional market share. The most elite institutions are unlikely to experience much impact because their demand curves are so high.

If one looks at where the majority of private, non-profit liberal arts colleges are placed, they are not where the growth of population is occurring. Likewise, the preponderance of these institutions  are where populations are stagnated or declining.

One significant population that may provide a buffer for institutions for whom the demographic cliff looks like a train headed their way is the significant population of non-completers. There are currently over 36 million people in the U.S. who have left college since 1993 without receiving a credential. Rethinking our audience by engaging those students will be an important step in sustaining our missions.